HD will win. Sony hasnt successfully introduced a technology medium since, well, ever.
This is going to go like Betamax vs. VHS. I doubt a lot of you even know what Betamax is. Basically they were both video formats, Sony's was the Betamax, and it died. Just like mini discs died. Just like UMDs will die out.
Why? Because Sony wants a monopoly on their technology which leads to more expensive blanks when it comes to home recorders.
There will be 100s of cheap ass HDDVD blanks on the market, and only expensive Sony Blu Ray, and thats why it will fail like all other Sony mediums.
Also, I honestly think including the Blu Ray with the PS3 hurt Sony. I dont think theres enough PS3s on the market to influence the home entertainment movie watching market, plus its in my experience made the Blu Ray seem like a gamers/teen thing while HD DVD, at least in the eys of the average father Joe Shmoe business man whos buying something for the home, more professional. Ive heard this from friends fathers and older business acquaintances of mine.
Also. HD DVD is region free, and add to that the fact copying them will be cheaper, its going to become the format of bootleggers around the world, and unfortunatly, that is a big influence on buyers in regards to what format they want at home. Do they want the ever expensive BluRay or the already cheaper HD DVD, for which they can buy the latest releases on next time they go to Thailand or whatever?
HD DVD will win.