my thoughts...
it is true that the armored death row limo was to have been present in vegas, and likewise that pac was going to have to face the music with the rape case (and a multitude of others that remained pending). so let's imagine that pac wasn't shot that night in vegas. where would he be?
professionally makaveli was a character persona developed for pac's war with bad boy and his other rivals. obviously while he was recording makaveli tracks in the summer of 1996 he was also recording 2pac tracks, such as words to my firstborn for random example, so the point is illustrated that he was still 2pac and hadn't transformed fully into makaveli. one of pac's albums that he had recorded for release after makaveli sometime was entirely clean, and meant for the kids/parents/radio. this album is further support for makaveli being a phase, and not representing a constant facet he had developed.
it's likely that pac would have pursued acting more than recording after a time, since in the end that's where his roots are and how he got into entertainment in the first place, but we have to remember that he was on bought time. the fact that he was on borrowed and very finite time means that he'd probably have continued recoding like a madman until his time was up. this leads to...
legally pac was on bail, he wasn't free. he still had pending trials against him for a variety of charges in several states, and of course the most significant being the sexual abuse/sodomy case in new york. in all reality he was going away for a very long time. one might speculate that with his celebrity, being who he was might create an oj simpson type circus of a trial ending with his freedom, but the reality is that the climate at that time was very anti-rap music in white and wealthy america. shit, i even wrote a sarcastic letter to newsweek in 1995 praising them for panning literally every hip hop related project without fail or discrimination. point is that the world was against him, except for the minority of us who'd had called ourselves fans. a judge's duty is not only to enforce the law of the land, it's also to perform social justice based on the prevailing moral climate of the society as well as the punitive puritan code on which this country was established.
so then, what could we expect? well being that he had a multitude of cases and sentencings pending from prior events, these would most likely be relevant to establish his character in court. the prosecutor already took that route in the pretrial sessions (see the courthouse interview used in the uteot video), and she'd have been successful in the real trial as well. face it, we like the guy but pac was but he had a long rap sheet, came from a family of rebels and lawbreakers, his own mother was in prison for her involvement in a plot that took several people's lives (later acquitted), rapped of violence/misogyny/hate/provocation/drug abuse (which was interpreted as endorsement), and trouble seemed to follow him everywhere he went. when the jury would look at the big picture that the prosecutor would have painted of pac't life, he'd have been locked up for 10 years.
personally my thought is that pac would have fled the country as his trial wound to a close. in songs and interviews he constantly says that "they" will never lock me up again. you can interpret the outro of picture me rollin as pac speaking on his death (which most do) or as i do, which is speaking on his flight. close your eves and picture him rolling as he was here when he was happy, since he's gone and on the run now - never to lead his life the same again. i doubt he'd have gone out like david koresh, but pac's interviews of his time in prison painted it to be hell for him and he'd rather face death than that barren existence. i can't blame him.
relationship wise, sure pac and dada were very tight, but as stated before, i think pac just didn't lead the life of a family man. there was no time, and he may have thought that it would be unfair to share the burden of his flight. had he gotten caught, for example, his partner in flight would also face harboring charges. i would wager that pac's work would continue being put out much as it is now (albeit not as shittily) but he would not have much promotion or endorsement. for those who know of his story, pac would be the 2000 version of roman polansky, but possibly hunted like salman rushdie.
politically irrelevant. pac's criminal past prohibited him from becoming an elected official, but moreover the majority vote would never support someone like him. the people online who say he'd have run for an elected position are idiots. pac may have attended rallies (like the one for prop 217 [i think it was] in which he's dressed in a white suit) but that would be it. it would be destructive for a candidate to even have him on the same stage in support.
in the end my opinion is that pac would still be a legend in his own time, but there's no way he'd have the universal favor that his estate celebrates now. he'd have been sent to prison, there is no question about that, and that being the case it's also more than likely that he'd have vanished. kind of depressing when you think about it all, and even moreso when you ponder that all of this was on his mind every second of the day. i can understand why he didn't sleep and why he chain smoked, but it's mind boggling how he was able to channel a lot of this nervous energy into the mass production of amazing music.
awesome thread. as you can see i have a lot of opinions on the subject.